Women’s basketball bubble watch: Will Iowa State make the tournament?

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

Over the next two months, get ready to hear the word “bubble” more than you do in the other 10 months of the year combined. It’s a staple of bracketology and March Madness seeding. The term “bubble” simply means a team is right on the edge of being seeded.

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The bubble is officially made up of 16 squads. The last four teams that will receive a bye, the last four teams that will earn bids, the first four teams to barely miss the cut and the next four that also have a chance. When comparing these teams, head-to-head matchups, good wins and bad losses play a major role.

These 16 teams are currently on bubble watch. Here’s who would be in and who would be out if the season ended today:

Iowa State

Technically, Iowa State is on the bubble, but I don’t think Cyclones fans have too much to worry about. Five straight losses to Baylor, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Colorado and Oklahoma State put the Cyclones in a precarious position, but a win against Texas Tech last week got them back on track. Plus, the committee will take into account that the losses happened when Arianna Jackson and Addy Brown were injured. Jackson has since returned, and while Brown is “out indefinitely,” she should be back at some point this season.

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The Cyclones also still have a shot to work their way into a higher seed with a game against TCU in a few weeks. A win would certainly boost their resume. Iowa State is currently in the No. 8-, 9- and 10- seed conversation.

Stanford

Overall, the Cardinal have a solid resume, sitting at 36 in the NET rankings and 33 in strength of schedule. They have wins over Washington, Oregon and North Carolina, all of which are currently in the field. However, those wins occurred earlier in the season, and the committee puts a higher value on recent results. Stanford has lost its last four games to Syracuse, Louisville and Notre Dame (all current March Madness squads) and California, another bubble team. If the season ended today, Stanford would still be in, likely as a 10 or 11 seed, and avoid a play-in game. But the Cardinal will need to have a better showing in the back half of ACC play to keep that bid.

Colorado

The Buffaloes get a significant resume boost thanks to their strength of schedule, which ranks 20th in the NCAA. Their best win came against Iowa State on Jan. 14, and the Buffs also played close against Baylor — a team projected to host in the first round — losing by just four points, 56-52. Though Stanford dropped into the bubble because of its recent losses, Colorado has catapulted into the field because of its recent wins. The Buffs have won four of their last five, including victories over Iowa State and Oklahoma State.