Auburn basketball still has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament, but its chances are fading following its 91-85 loss to Mississippi State on Wednesday, its fifth-straight defeat.
Going cold in mid-February with five regular-season games remaining is not ideal, which is why ESPN’s Neil Paine believes Auburn has “work to do” to build its resume for the NCAA Tournament.
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Auburn joins Texas A&M and Missouri in the category with two full weeks remaining in the regular season. Paine empathises with Auburn, mentioning that four of Auburn’s five losses in their current streak have been to Quad 1 teams, but that Wednesday’s loss to Mississippi State hurt them. Still, Auburn’s strength of schedule could give it a boost should it win several notable upcoming games over Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Alabama.
The skid has dropped Auburn to 5-8 in SEC play and is very much complicating what once seemed like a strong tournament case. If we zoom out, the Tigers do have four Quadrant 1 wins (including two Quadrant 1A) against the nation’s fourth-most difficult schedule per the BPI, and they remain mid-30s in the national résumé ranking average. On paper, those types of teams tend to receive an at-large call more often than not, though the BPI is projecting them to finish the regular season with just 17 wins. They will be a fascinating litmus test for how much the committee values record versus schedule strength.
Auburn basketball will aim to right the ship and win most of its final five games. Three of their upcoming games against Kentucky (Saturday), Oklahoma (Feb. 24), and Alabama (March 7) are Quad 1 opportunities, while its Feb. 28 game against Ole Miss is a Quad 3 chance, and its date with LSU on March 3 is a Quad 2 opportunity. Wins over Ole Miss and LSU could secure Auburn a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but at least one win over its remaining three Quad 1 opponents is needed to avoid a low seed and a challenging draw in the first round of the tournament.
Before Auburn’s loss to Mississippi State, the Tigers were a No. 9 seed in ESPN’s Bracketology from Joe Lunardi, and a No. 10 seed in USA TODAY’s Bracketology. It will be interesting to see how the selection committee views Auburn over the next two weeks.
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This article originally appeared on Auburn Wire: Auburn basketball on ESPN’s ‘bubble watch’ for NCAA Tournament
