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INDIAN WELLS, Calif. — Aryna Sabalenka beat Elena Rybakina 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(6) in the BNP Paribas Open final Sunday at Indian Wells Tennis Garden.
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The No. 1 seed saved a match point against the No. 3 seed in a serve-driven display of power and timely finesse, ultimately decided by her ability to impose her terms on the match after a first set in which she could not, as well as a nuanced serving display that staved off Rybakina’s break-point opportunities.
It is Sabalenka’s first BNP Paribas Open title and her 10th WTA 1000 title. It also snaps a two-match losing streak against Rybakina in big finals, after this year’s Australian Open and last year’s WTA Tour Finals.
Two of The Athletic’s tennis writers, Ava Wallace and Matt Futterman, analyze the final and what it means for tennis.
Why does Aryna Sabalenka’s Plan A not always work against Elena Rybakina?
Aryna Sabalenka went from being a terrific player and one-time Grand Slam champion, to being a world No. 1, multi-Grand Slam champion and finals mainstay, when she learned to incorporate variety into her game.
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Sabalenka will always be a first-strike player first, someone who hunts her forehand and blows so many opponents off the court in the space of two shots. But what has made the difference in some of the biggest recent wins of her career is her ability to throw in drop shots and finish points at the net.
She can be so good at it, that there have been times that this kind of play feels more like a part of her identity than something to fall back on — or something to use against other power hitters, who thrive as metronomes and are less good at changing tempo.
Rybakina is one such player. So much so, that it seemed like Sabalenka would attempt to throw her off from the beginning, rather than trying to go toe-to-toe with the rare player who, when she is on, can take the racket out of Sabalenka’s hands.
That was how Sabalenka drew even in January’s Australian Open final. Before and after the middle part of that match, Rybakina pinned her to the baseline.
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Something similar happened Sunday morning in the desert, a time and a place where Sablenka has had her share of frustration. She didn’t approach the net once during the first set, and she didn’t hit a single drop shot. She didn’t even start trying to break the sidelines with the angled forehands that drive players to distraction until the final game.
All this meant that the early advantage went to Rybakina, who spent the first set absorbing, deflecting and rocketing back Sabalenka’s power with her own. Sabalenka can win a lot of hitting contests. But she hadn’t been able to win one against Rybakina for a while, whether at the WTA Tour Finals, the Australian Open, or early in this BNP Paribas Open final.
— Matt Futterman
How did Rybakina’s second set turn?
Rybakina was in complete control in the first set. When she broke Sabalenka’s serve in the first game of the second, off a wild double fault from the world No. 1, the kind of ominous flow state she reaches at her best appeared well underway.
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Then, on the first point of her next service game, she made an unexpected dart to the net off a central groundstroke and gave Sabalenka a target to send the ball past. The world No. 1 seized the opportunity, breaking Rybakina straight back to love and stopping what was fast becoming a runaway train.
In her next service game, Rybakina was up 30-15 when she flubbed her forehand for the first time in the second set, sending what appeared to be a routine winner into the open court sailing far wide. Two points later, she dumped a 115 mph serve into the net, double-faulted, and never recovered control of her forehand for the rest of the set.
She took a little heat off of her serve for the sake of more precision and scaled back the speed of her groundstrokes in a bid to get more control, but that gave Sabalenka, who had been unable to contain her opponent’s straight power, just a second longer to prepare.
Even with some occasionally shaky serving of her own, Sabalenka was able to surprise Rybakina enough with off-speed second serves and mixed-up pace on her groundstrokes to keep her off-kilter — largely because Rybakina had to sacrifice some speed of her own.
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— Ava Wallace
How did break-point opportunities define the second set … ?
In a match between two of the best servers and escape artists on the WTA Tour, at first it appeared that a break of serve meant a given set would be done.
Then Sabalenka got that break back to love right at the start of the second set, and what had been a smooth, if one-sided match suddenly became scratchier. Rybakina’s forehand drifted into the desert; Sabalenka started maneuvering angles even from the center of the court. Service games got more tense: Sabalenka played 22 points on serve to Rybakina’s 25 in the first set, and 42 to Rybakina’s 20 in the second, including a long hold in the fourth game in which she saved two break points.
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When the world No. 1 played a few sloppy shots serving at 4-2, she missed on her first delivery with the sun in her eyes. As Sabalenka tossed the ball into the air for her second serve, Rybakina moved in to feast on the second. And did she ever have one to feast on.
Sabalenka rolled her second ball short to Rybakina’s backhand. Rybakina stepped in for the kill, the court on Sabalenka’s forehand side wide open, and pounded it into the middle of the net. It was her fifth break point of the match. She’d converted just two. She would get another one as Sabalenka tried to serve out the second set.
As for Sabalenka, she was getting fewer opportunities but wasn’t wasting them. She was 2 of 2 on break point chances in the first two sets, and then went 3 for 3 early in the third one. She was taking full advantage of the tennis scoring system – it’s not how many points won, but when.
— Matt Futterman
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… And how did Sabalenka’s serving stave them off until a crucial moment?
Sabalenka and Rybakina were neck-and-neck on serve for much of the match. Going into the final game of the third set, they had both made 57 percent of their first serves, winning 65 percent of the points played behind them.
Until the very end of that set, it was Sabalenka’s serve that was more effective in big moments. She initially dictated the third set with it, not slamming the hardest shot she could down the T, but instead taking speed off or changing her placement.
Off-speed serves had disrupted Rybakina in the second set; in the third, Sabalenka leaned on that tactic again, serving a few times in the 80-mph range, which consistently led to Rybakina sending returns straight into the bottom of the net.
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In the sixth game, leading 3-2, Sabalenka had a 40-0 lead before letting Rybakina back to deuce. Sabalenka ended that quickly, with a gutsy, 104 mph serve at a sharp angle that landed short and wide in the service box to Rybakina’s backhand side.
The next time Rybakina took Sabalenka to deuce she did the same thing, ending any hope of an extended back-and-forth with a good, old-fashioned 111 mph ace to hold for 5-3.
But then, at 5-4 with Sabalenka serving for the match, her first serve deserted her and Rybakina climbed back into the match. The world No. 3 started finding the angles that Sabalenka had been exploiting for most of the set, and broke back to take the score to 5-5 and eventually force a deciding tiebreak — by saving five break points of her own in a seesawing 11th game of the set.
— Ava Wallace
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Sabalenka makes good on her key mission for 2026
For Aryna Sabalenka this was a big move in a “big” final.
If there was any fault to find with the four-time Grand Slam winner, the world No. 1 for the last year and a half and an increasingly ubiquitous presence in the finals of any tournament she enters, it’s that Sabalanka hasn’t often played her best tennis, in the biggest moments, in the biggest tournaments.
Tennis has a nickname for those events – they are “big titles.” For the women they include the Grand Slams, the 10 WTA 1000 events, and the WTA Tour Finals.
Sabalenka played the final match in seven of those tournaments last year, and she won three. It burned her — and it only got worse in January, when she lost the Australian Open final to Rybakina.
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Keep losing matches like these, and scar tissue and doubt can begin to build. Down a set and a break, Sabalenka looked on her way to her third consecutive loss in a big final.
She had some help from Rybakina, whose forehand, serve and efficiency suffered as the sun got higher and hotter, but Sabalenka got stronger as conditions became more difficult and won her first WTA 1000, just below the level of a Grand Slam, since last year at the Madrid Open.
And come the deciding tiebreak, it was all Sabalenka once she went behind. A laser backhand off a short one from Rybakina saved a match point, before she blasted a forehand at the onrushing Rybakina at 6-6 and the world No. 3 pinged the ball back but beyond the baseline.
This win puts her at 1-1 in “big” finals this year and 2 of 3 in finals overall. She also won the Brisbane International to open the season.
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Sabalenka has said that losing big finals last year was a good problem to have. She made a step toward solving it Sunday in the desert, and it was fitting that she began to solve this problem with a tiebreak, even from a mini-break down. She is 27-3 in tiebreaks since the start of 2025.
What did Aryna Sabalenka say after the final?
We’ll bring you their on-court quotes and press conference reflections as they come in.
What did Elena Rybakina say after the final?
We’ll bring you their on-court quotes and press conference reflections as they come in.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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